Joys and Sorrows of Making Decisions

Martin Tesar
@mattes_cz

With all the data available, it might seem that decision making process is quite easy, almost enjoyable. But the ability to make the right decisions is not entirely based on reading the numbers. Contra intuitively, we, the proud creators of data analysis software, want to give a shout-out for all the people who take some time for tuning their instincts.

Terry Pratchett said that “The truth may be out there, but the lies are inside your head” and more often than not, we are waiting for the truth with our own set of biases. Even from the right data it is easy to reach false conclusions, when the conclusion is desired. One of most common cognitive biases is confirmation bias, when we find a way (usually unconsciously) how to bend the data to better suit our needs and wants. We all tend to validate our preconceptions, overestimate some information above others (availability heuristic), jump the bandwagon and feel  overprotective over our previously made decisions (choice-supportive bias). We would like to think that we can eliminate these fallacies by building the right tool, with clearly stated information that is visualised in context. And hopefully, we can. But big part of the work is still in hands of the person making the decision.